What to expect next and how to prosper from it

So now we have arrived in the “downturn” what should you expect and what can you do to protect yourself against the inevitable recession that follows the downturn that the global economy is experiencing?

Having lived through the last “big” recession of 2008, the ramifications of which carried on for years afterwards, I have a pretty good idea of what to expect as the similarities are striking, if somewhat accelerated and exaggerated. So I’m putting a few of my predictions down here to help you, based on my experience, and to watch as we navigate through the hysteria about the economy that is about to unfold.

Firstly lets get the terminology sorted out. Right now (31st May 2020) we are in an official downturn. That means we’ve had one quarter of a dip in the economy, a recession is when that happens for at least six months and a depression is a year or more. It’s pretty obvious we will see a recession, a depression will depend on how we and the governments of the world react.

The weird thing about any downturn or recession is that there is no less money in the world (sometimes there is more!) it’s the exchange or flow of money that is slowed down. This is usually caused by uncertainty in the financial markets, a big “issue” in one of the big industries like the banking or housing market (as in 2008) or something like a war. This downturn however has been caused by a global pandemic where the entire world has effectively closed for business. This is unprecedented, so we are all guessing as to what happens next. What I know is that the way in which we recover, and the speed at which we recover from this will depend largely on the zeitgeist of the world.

Confidence, creativity and positivity is the formula to success in this new economy. In the last recession, I got heavily burned and lost one business and had to make redundancies and huge cuts in another. I was ill prepared and didn’t have an immediate strategy to overcome the inevitable recession. I vowed I wouldn’t let that happen again. I studied the businesses that prospered during the recession and build my new business model around that premiss.

The new model is what has kept me busy for the last ten years and now we are in the downturn, my business has actually expanded. I fully expect this to accelerate and continue throughout the downturn, even if we do hit a depression.

Why and how?

In any given economic trading environment there is always opportunity. I saw it in the last recession. Businesses that thrived despite the doom and gloom the media kept throwing at us. Knowing that even in the worst of times there is the ability to thrive is what separates the true entrepreneurs from the wantreprenuers. That’s why when the lockdown was announced, the team at Blam went into “full on” maniac mode - the inevitable was coming and that meant opportunity. It was a massively exciting time and fuelled by adrenaline and a desperate need to help all of the businesses that were scared and unable to trade.

I instinctively new that in the period to come “most people” would hunker down and retreat. That meant there was a huge opportunity to get out there and seize the moment. We put together a campaign that allowed our Blam Partners to speak to SME’s and help them trade using our online tools, despite the turmoil around us. Remember, the money is still out there it just needs to flow and that’s what we looked at doing.

We had lots of new partners joining us at Blam, and more than triple the number of website and app sales than in the same month in 2019. Our business is now set to exceed all targets and prosper through the coming months of uncertainty with a positive, laser focussed message. 

And they can. Here’s some points that we know and my view on where the opportunity lies in each one.

1. There will be a huge economic downturn that has arrived faster than any other in history.

   That means that, like a coiled spring, there is also the opportunity to bounce back and some industries most definitely will. Make sure you are in or serving one of these industries.
   
   
2. There will be mass redundancies in the coming few weeks.

   Redundancies means people will get payouts and that means they will have money to spend on setting up a new businesses or spending on things to help them get back to work. How can you take advantage of this?
   
   
3. Most of the world’s governments will be in huge debt so taxes will go up
.
   When taxes go up governments begin to recover and that means they incentive new business creation with Grants and think tanks etc. Can you leverage this opportunity?

   
   
4. The media will be hugely negative and cause a mass retraction
.
   This is always the case, however this is the first recession where we have social media influencers affecting the mood and lots of influencers are positive entrepreneurs. This could help fuel the bounce back and get things moving quickly. Is social media something you can leverage?

   
   
5. Millions of businesses word wide will go bankrupt
.
   That means lots of debt will be written off, meaning they will have a clean sheet to start again. New business start ups from people who have been burnt in a downturn means, experienced business owners who are unlikely to make the same mistakes again. How can you help them?

   
   
6. Millions of people will go bankrupt
.
   As above, a lot of these will be entrepreneurs. From adversity they will find opportunity. As all of this will be compressed into a very short time space, new businesses will spring up everywhere, ultimately turning the tide. How can you help them?

   
   
7. Digital commerce will overtake traditional retail
.
   The lockdown will have taught us all how we can use online tools to buy and sell, that means for the digital space there is HUGE opportunity to prosper NOW and for the foreseeable future.

   
   
8. Lots of people will talk negatively about the economy
.
   Meaning lots of people will let fear stop them from prospering. That means there’s opportunity for the with the courage to find the business that WILL be out there.

My overriding message to you now, if you are scared and wondering what the future holds is to seize the moment. There will never be another time like this. We have just been through and are still in the biggest transformation of the economic environment the world’s has ever seen. THERE IS HUGE OPPORTUNITY RIGHT NOW, for people with the courage and the conviction to make it happen for themselves, their families and the people they serve.

Will you look back at this moment and say, I wish I had taken action?

I know I won’t :)

To your success,

Grant, CEO, Blam

PS: I guess I have to add that all of the above is only my humble opinion and not qualified financial advice. We are all grown ups here and any actions you take are your responsibility and yours alone, so own your actions and the results that you get.